Moneyball 101 – Part 1 : Baker Will Throw 56 TD Pass Next Year
Since Moneyball has been at the center of the sports world for the past decades and that it is the main reason behind the teardown of our beloved Browns and their dreadful 1-31 record. Before our savior – Mr Dorsey – took the reins, we felt it was the only way to analyze the upcoming season. So, without further notice, here’s the first of a series of Moneyball 101 articles that will explain our belief that the Browns will go 16-0 in 2019.
Let’s start with the only real variable that impacts the improvement of a young QB from his rookie season to his sophomore year, what other young QB faired in other circumstances in the past years. Hang tight, this will get very complicated since Moneyball 101 is a series based on deep analytics of football statistics.
Selection of the other young QBs to deep dive into statistics.
We have elected to go with the five following QBs since they were the ones with the most advanced stats available:
- Jared Goff
- Carson Wentz
- Mitch Trubisky
- Patrick Mahomes
- Deshaun Watson
Identification of the first key performance indicator (KPI) used in our deep analysis of Moneyball 101
Since we are looking at the TD Pass expectation for Baker next year, we will use the TD ratio from year one to year two for each QB. Here’s how it looks like.
5 TDs year one
28 TDs year two.
Ratio : 5,6
16 TDs year one
33 TDs year two
Ratio : 2,06
7 TDs year one
24 TDs year two
Ratio : 3,43
ZERO* TD year one
50 TDs year two
Ratio : 50
*we have elected to give Patrick 1 TD in year one since it’s impossible to get a plausible ratio otherwise
19 TDs year one
26 TDs year two
Ratio : 1,37
For that part, we will use the average improvement ratio for each of our studies subject and multiply it with Baker’s RECORD BREAKING rookie season TD Pass total.
In this case, the average improvement ratio for the five youg QBs is 12,49. Which means that we need to multiply that number by Baker’s rookie season total of 27 TD Pass, did we say this was a RECORD BREAKING rookie season by Baker. That leads us to a projected total of 337 TD Pass for 2019.
Since many people outside of the Cleveland Browns fanbase will doubt our impeccable Moneyball analysis, we will apply use one last perfectly flawless number to divide our previous projection of 337 TD Pass to bring it to an easier number to believe for people that just don’t get it.
We will divide our projection by the greatest number ever, number 6. This gives us 337 TD Pass divided by 6, a total of 56,5 TD Pass for 2019. Since it is impossible to throw half a TD Pass, we will again be cautious and simply use 56 as our prediction for Baker’s upcoming sophomore season.
We hope that this in-depth analysis of Moneyball statistics was as useful and instructive as it was meant to be.
There’s only one thing to add
Join the 16-0 bandwagon now !!!